I’m not sure it matters.

I think both apply to the current EU leadership, who — I am sure — have followed Jesus’s sardonic injunction and made to themselves friends of the riches (“mammon”) of unrighteousness, “that, when ye fail, they may receive you into everlasting habitations.” Does anyone doubt that — regardless of what happens to the Euro, the European Union, and the citizens of the various countries involved — the various EU leaders and bureaucrats will come out just fine?

I am cheerfully ready and willing to be wrong about the fate of the Euro and/or the EU; both may well survive in some form out of sheer inertia and entrenchment. But there remain the cold equations: debt and deficits and unfunded liabilities can be hid under the financial ocean for a while, but — as Warren Buffet famously observed — when the tide goes out, we get to see who’s swimming naked. And the tide is going out everwhere at once: Europe, North America, Asia.

In the end, we may see a political realignment in Europe that rivals the collapse of the Soviet Union — a development that itself was considered impossible (absent a world war) and yet happened in a matter of months. The resulting financial tsunami is likely to wash over North America and Asia, worstening the financial issues in both regions.

Decades of experience have taught us time and again that in socialism, we do indeed eventually run out of other people’s money; and that wishful thinking and good intentions and desire for utopic justice will not, in fact, somehow bend the unforgiving laws of mathematics.

Keynes, challenged on the long-run implications of his economic theories, quipped, “In the long run, we are all dead.” He might just have well said, “Après nous, le déluge.” We have sold our birthright for a mess of pottage, and our children and grandchildren will wear our shackles.

And a good Monday morning to all of you. ..bruce w..

I did indeed crash. Probably just as well, since it appeared to have been raining durng the afternoon, which pretty much ruled out putting up the new signs, etc. Instead, once I was sufficiently conscious, Sandra and I headed down to the Christmas Market on the lower part of the Champs-Elysees, both to grab something to eat — a room service hamburger here at the hotel costs about US$30 — and to finish up some Christmas/grandkids shopping.

Once again, both the upscale retail section of the Champs-Elysees as well as the (temporary) Christmas Market section were absolutely jammed, so the Eurocrisis doesn’t seem to have damped anyone’s enthusiasm for going out. How actual sales are, I have no idea — but a lot of people in the upscale retail section were carrying purchase bags from the various stores.

True fact: the Abercrombie & Fitch store on the Champs-Elysees actually had a roped waiting line for getting in.

So, what’s my takeaway from a weekend in France? I keep thinking back to what Thomas, one of the Parisians I interviewed, said to me at the start of our conversation: it’s like running along on a flat area, and then you suddenly come to a cliff, and bam! you fall down. The image that came to me, with my own cultural heritage, was of Wiley E. Coyote, running off a cliff and actually going some ways over empty space. Then he suddenly realizes there’s nothing below him, looks to the camera, waves goodbye, and plummets to the gorund. (In fact, I think that this clip sums up Europe’s situation very well.) That is what I suspect will happen to the Eurozone, and possbly to the EU as well. ..bruce w..

France’s future is cloudy.

OK, OK, cheap symbolism, but that’s the best kind, for reasons that I’ll come with eventually. Meanwhile, in case you’re wondering about the strange post name, “Tour Eiffel” is French for “Eiffel Tower”, and yes, we went on a tour of the Eiffel Tower this morning. We had gone last year (just standing in line, not as part of a tour), but it was cloudy, and so I couldn’t get clear photos of Paris. We had high hopes this morning — it was sunny and clear when we left the hotel, and still sunny when we started the tour at the Tower, but by the time we got to the top — well, you can see. All very symbolic.

I asked Hailey — our chipper and informative tour guide from the Maritime Provinces who has been here since last summer — what she thought about the Eurocrisis, and she frankly admitted to knowning almost nothing about it. On the other hand, she has a country to go back to that is frankly in better economic and political shape that most of the rest of the world, so why should she care?

Meanwhile, it was very, very cold and a bit windy to boot up on the Tour Eiffel. I don’t get cold easily, but I’ve been back here in the hotel room for 30 minutes or so, and I’m still a bit chilled. I’m also falling asleep and have to decide whether I want to take a nap or (cue Popeye-eating-spinach music) take a bottle of 5 Hour Energy. In either case, I’m going to have to warm up before I can decide whether to go stand out in the cold again in hopes to getting to interview a few more folks. .bruce w..

I did get two interviews. In two hours. Plus one bit of pungent walk-by commentary. I’ll chronicle the whole effort later, but here’s the feedback from today.

Thomas — in his 30s, and looking like a classic clean-cut-with-stubble French professional — described himself as ‘not a typical Parisian’, though he never quite explained what that meant. His general view of the Euro crisis that of running towards a cliff: everything’s fine until you hit the edge, and then ‘boom’. He focused mostly on the cultural differences between the Germans and everyone else — in particular, getting the Germans to share anyone else’s point of view or to acknowledge that there might be a better or at least different way. As he put it, the Germans are great marketers, but after a while they begin to believe their own marketing, and so does everyone else.

He also drew another interesting comparison between the Germans and the French. He said (again paraphrasing) that Germans resist any change, but when they are finally convinced that change is necessary, they go through a period of upheaval (Thomas said “chaos”) and then make real, substantive change. By contrast, he said, the French are always willing to tweak and adjust, but they never seem to make the fundamental, ground-up changes that are needed.

Finally, Thomas seemed to be genuinely torn between admitting that the Germans pretty much are correct in needed to be fiscally responsible and at the same time wondering if the cure is going to simply make things worse. Thomas used the analogy of a starter (by which I believe he meant the choke) on an older car — that if the engine is really cold, you need to pull the starter out to get the engine started. But he also acknowledged that the rest of Europe had been continuing to drive with the starter pulled out, and that this wasn’t very good for the engine.

As far as the ultimate fate of the Euro and possiby the European Union itself, Thomas acknowledged that the risks and dangers are there, but said, “At the end of the day, we have no choice — they will have to work this out.”

A while after I spoke with Thomas, a tall, dishevled man stood a ways off and read my sign. He then walked towards me, laughing, though not in a friendly way. As he passed close to me, he gave me the bird and said, walking away behind me, “America is the problem, not Europe. F**king America, f**king dollar…” More than that, I could not make out, due to the noise of the area.

My other real interview of the afternoon was Matthieu, who looked to be in his 20s and of Asian descent. Matthieu, who said he worked at a bank, felt that the origin of the current EU crisis was the American banking (by which I think he meant financial) system itself. In effect, he said that American financial firms were (for a while) so successful at getting higher and higher returns on investment that European banks felt they could and should do the same, instead of remaining conservative and content with lower returns on lower risks. In particularly, he was critical of ‘state’ banks that try to compete with private banks but can’t, really.

Interestingly, as for sovereign debt, Matthieu actually saw the American debt problem as the bigger crisis. He felt that a major financial downturn by the EU would weaken it but not have a lot of impact outside of Europe, while a similar financial collapse by the US would seriously impact the rest of the world. He also had serious concerns about China, where (as he put it) the rulers are rich but everyone else is poor, and that the governmnet is having a hard time managing that.

Next post: why it took me two hours to get two interviews today. ..bruce w..

Our hotel room (acquired using some of the bazillion frequent-stayer points I’ve accumulated at a particular hotel chain) overlooks the Champs-Elysees. Even at 4 in the morning, the C-E is busy with cars — not jammed, like yesterday evening, but merely busy — and with pedesrians, almost all of whom are in pairs or groups. The people, that is. They’re also generally noisy (again, the people). New York likes to style itself as “the city that never sleeps”, but I’m not sure it’s got much on Paris.

I would post photos and/or video — both of which I took just a few mintues ago from our balcony — but in an effort to pack light, I left my laptop back in the States. I have no easy (or, for that matter, hard) way of tranfering said images onto my iPad, and even if I did, I’m not sure I have a way to upload them to WordPress. figured it out.

Meanwhile, the EU has been splintering just in the last 24 hours. Interesting times ahead. ..bruce w..

I’m not sure what Tocqueville would have made of the Euromess, but I think it’s pretty easy to guess.

On the other hand, I think I may have discovered part of the core financial problem here in France. Sitting in the lobby of our hotel, waiting for a room to become available, we ordered (each) a 250ml Pepsi Max. Cost per Pepsi: 8 euros, or (doing some quick conversion) about $87/gallon. No, seriously. At that price, for what Steve Jobs famously dismissed as “colored sugar water” (though, in this case, simply colored water — it lacks even the sugar), I would expect an active commodities market. 

I have not as yet acosted anyone to ask them about the Eurocrisis. In part, it’s because it’s cold and drizzly outside, which makes person-in-the-street interviews a bit tricky. Mostly, though, it’s because I wanted to shower, shave and freshen up a bit after wearing these clothes for the last 20 hours or so.

And, of course, having gotten a room around noon and having done all of the above, I then promptly violated every jet-lag-adjustment tip and crashing for nearly 5 hours after the hotel. Clearly the 250ml of Pepsi Max wasn’t enough to keep me awake.

Speaking of active commodites markets, now that we’re both up, we’re going to hit the Christmas market along the Champs-Elysees. I’ve seen at least one news report saying that such traditional markets here in Europe are suffering or might suffer because of the economic crisis.

We shall see. ..bruce w..

So as I sit here on the plane, I have been trying to think of what questions I do want to ask, particularly those that are likely to provide the most interesting answers. Here are some of the ones I’ve come up with so far, though I am open to suggestions:

• Has the Euro-crisis had any direct impact on you so far?
• What are your biggest concerns about the possible collapse of the Euro?
• What are your concerns, if any, about the proposed bailout efforts to help salvage the Eurozone?
• Do you think French citizens should pay to bail out Greece, Italy, Spain and Portugal?
• What political worries do you have if the Eurozone and the EU itself collapses?
• So, how about those Germans?

Other thoughts? ..bruce w..

Important events and circumstances have combined in such a way that in a few short hours I will be boarding an airliner on my way to the Continent, to witness first-hand the turmoil of fiscal and sovereign upheaval caused by the ever-imminent collapse of the Eurozone, and to report on it here to you.

OK, here’s what really is happening. A few weeks ago, I noticed that I was going to come up roughly 10,000 miles short on requalifying for a certain elite status on a certain airline. I had enjoyed having that status all this year, and I was not looking forward to dropping down to the next lower status. So I did what hundreds of other travelers do each year: I booked a flight for no other reason than to achieve that status.

But the cheapest fare I could find that would produce the necessary miles was to Paris — and I would have to stay a few days for that fare. I had brought my wife along on a business trip to Paris a year ago — the first time there for both of us — and it had been wonderful. I could not not take my wife along. (“Yes, dear, I’m flying to Paris this weekend — can you take care of the house and dogs while I’m gone? I’ll bring you back something.”) Actually, my sweet wife Sandra would have been completely supportive, but I still couldn’t do that to her. (Text from me: “Gosh, the Christmas market on the Champs-Elysees is just as magical this year as it was last year!” Text from her: “Aw, that’s wonderful.” Not texted: Sobs.)

So in a few hours, we will head to our local airport to start the trek to Paris. However, I now have a goal in mind: to find out what the average, typical Parisian — that is to say, one who (a) speaks English and (b) is willing to be accosted by an iPhone-wielding American — thinks about the Euro crisis and the future of the French Fifth Republic (and the possible rise of the German Fourth Reich).

Stay tuned.  ..bruce w..

P.S. Have to work on my pronunciation for Je suis un blogueur américain.

There’s a late session tonight (with James Lileks, Andew Klavan, and S. E. Cupp), but I’m frankly worn out by the steady roll of the ship (due to steady 30+ knot winds blowing from the east) and we’ve got an 8:30 snorkling excursion in the morning (we arrive at Grand Turk around 7 am). I may yet run down to listen a bit, but I’m whipped. ..bruce..

The two right columns are mine, but they're just math.

Earlier today, a good friend of mine cited the Federal budget surpluses at the end of the Clinton Administration as an argument for higher taxes. I pointed out that if we had the same Federal budget as Clinton did, we’ve have a surplus, too. Then I put together this chart from a spreadsheet downloaded directly from a US Government website, though the percentage growth and overage columns are my addition.

Put simply, from 1999 to 2010, the US population grew by 10% and inflation reduced the value of the dollar by about 30%. Combine those two, and Federal spending should have gone up roughly 43% over that period. Instead, it went up 135%, or three times what it should have. Setting aside some of the bailouts, etc., that are in the budget, it’s still clear that almost every Federal line item went up at least twice what it should have during that period. Almost nothing (other than “general government”) grew a “mere” 43%.

I fully blame Bush and the 2002-2006 Republicans as much as I blame Obama and the 2006-2010 Democrats. The real question is whether the 2010 Republicans have the brains and the will to turn back the tide.  ..bruce w..