The world is a dangerous place, and today that danger went up a notch.  Our erstwhile allies, the Russians, have decided to lease a powerful Akula / Project 971 nuclear powered attack submarine to India for an extended period of time.

India has been working steadily towards a home grown (and at some point for sale on the export market) nuclear submarine.  A significant part of establishing the INS as a credible submarine force is developing the operational doctrine that goes with a nuclear boat.

The Russians have agreed to lease for 10 years attack submarine K-152 known as the Nerpa.  When re-crewed for the INS, it will be know as the INS Chakra.  This 10 year lease indicates that India is not just going to train and experiment with this powerful platform, but will likely deploy it on operational patrols.  The lessons learned operating this sophisticated machine will rapidly boost the INS’s proficiency for the day when their own subs come on line.

Akula submarines are armed with four torpedo tubes that can fire Russian type 53 torpedoes or SS-N-15 Starfish missile, with an additional 4 tubes that can launch Russian type 65 torpedoes or SS-N-16 Stallion missiles.  The Nerpa likely has an additional 6 “static” tubes attached to the hull, but it is unclear if these will be removed prior to it’s delivery to India.

Akula submarines are among the more quiet of the Russian navy, and could possibly evade some less sophisticated detection systems.  We assume the US Navy is more than up to the task of finding Akula’s anywhere they sail, but for India’s prime enemy, Pakistan, an Akula is possibly too stealthy for them to detect.

While the chances of India threatening the US are remote, this is a clear sign of an escalating arms race in south Asia, which is being driven by the Iranian weapons programs.  The lease and likely operational deployment of the Nerpa / Chakra is a clear threat to Pakistan, and will likely prompt further anti-submarine technology purchases by Islamabad.

Hey, big spender! Spend a little time with me....

How do you think TOTUS felt about that brazen hussy flaunting herself in the middle of the White House Press Corps? Talk among yourselves. I’ve still got work to do. ..bruce..

Remember this? I do.

I scan the web so that you don’t have to . . .

Let’s see . . . the North Koreans . . . the Chinese . . . and now the Russians. Who’s going to be the next to challenge the new Obama Administration? Maybe Iran? And how will the Obama Administration respond? Oh, I know — by no longer calling captured terrorists “enemy combatants“! That’ll show them. “Reset button“, indeed. We seem to be resetting ourselves  back into the Cold War.

Meanwhile, VP Joe Biden remains the gift that keeps on giving. Explain to me again why this man was somehow more credible as Vice President than Sarah Palin? On the other hand, his response was to a friend addressing him as “Mr. Vice-President”, so he was merely echoing the sentiments of a lot of other Americans.

Didn’t we see this technology in “The Dark Knight”?

The Economist (a magazine I used to subscribe to until it veered sharply left) worries that “President Obama’s crisis response is not up to the task“. I think that has already been established. Didn’t take long, either.

Obama is losing Michael Barone, but I’m not sure he ever had him.

Obama may also be losing the Washington Post; at least, the WaPo appears to have decided that it’s a real newspaper, not a Democratic lapdog like the New York Times or MS-NBC. This analysis piece by Scott Wilson notes the Blame Bush syndrome coming from the White House. (Hat tip to Red State.)

Obama may even be losing Robert Reich; at least, he’s worrying him.

In contrast, Mark Steyn says we shouldn’t worry at all — it’s our kids who’ll have to clean up Obama’s mess!

Democrats: The Party of Tax Cheats! I know it’s been asked before, but are Democrats in favor of higher taxes simply because they have no intention of paying them?

Remember my link yesterday to the “Obama Fingers” they’re now selling in Germany? Rachel Lucas gins up this wonderful poster:

Yep, it’s a new era of relations with Europe, all right.

Speaking of chicken, here’s what I’m fixing today (got the recipe years ago from my daughter Bethan):

Tabasco Chicken

Take a few pounds of boneless, skinless chicken breasts and put them in a large ziploc bag. (NOTE: I often first cut the breasts lengthwise; they cook faster and more evenly that way.) Dump in one entire large (5 oz) bottle of Tabasco sauce, whatever your favorite flavor is (original, chipotle, jalapeno).  Close the bag and squish things around to coat all the breasts. Let the chicken marinate for at least a few hours. Grill over coals; don’t overcook. The leftovers, sliced up, make great fajitas.

Oops! Juror twitters during $12 million civil case (” I just gave away TWELVE MILLION DOLLARS of somebody else’s money!”).

Rehabilitating the Vikings.

Movie recommendation for the weekend: “36 Hours” (1965, B&W). James Garner stars as a US Army officer involved in D-Day planning who is drugged and kidnapped by German intelligence just a few days before the Allied Invasion of Europe. He wakes up in what appears to be a US Army Hospital, his hair has gray in it, he can’t read without glasses. He’s told that it’s 1950 and that he’s been suffering from amnesia due to torture inflicted by the Gestapo. So, his doctor (Rod Taylor) asks him, what can he remember about the Allied Invasion of Germany…? Also stars Eva Marie Saint, as well as John Banner (Sgt. Schultz from “Hogan’s Heroes”) in a wonderful bit part that probably landed him the “Hogan’s Heroes” role. A well-done film with some interesting twists; ripe for a modern remake.

My two favorite plays of all time are “Arcadia” by Tom Stoppard and “A Man for All Seasons” by Robert Bolt (neither of which should be confused with my favorite Broadway musicals of all time, “West Side Story” and “Sweeney Todd”). And this is probably my favorite scene from “A Man for All Seasons” (hat tip to Article VI Blog):

Tha-tha-tha-that’s all, folks! Enjoy your weekend!  ..bruce w..

Under our law, we can intercept any object if it is falling towards Japan, including any attacks on Japan, for our security

As discussed on this weblog before, we have always considered the possibility of Japan “taking the shot” should the North fire one of their somewhat ridiculous rockets down range towards Japan.

Possible shooters in a Japanese intercept of North Korean rocket

Anatomy of a Japanese Intercept

In the graphic above, I have attempted to diagram the likely participants in any intercept of the Taepodong-2 launch, focusing on a Japanese Self Defense Forces lead role. The blue dots represent assets capable of taking the shot, with rings showing the nominal engagement range of the weapons. The red dot represents the North Korean launch site, with the wide red lines representing the announced flight path and the prior flight path of the Taepodong-2.

JSD Kongo underway

Foremost in this line up is one or several of Japan’s Aegis destroyers, lead by the JDS Kongo. Kongo is credible threat for a North Korean intercept. In December 2007, during a joint US-Japanese exercise, the Kongo successfully tracked, engaged and destroyed a theater ballistic missile fired from the U.S. Navy’s Pacific Missile Range Facility on Kauai, Hawaii using a Raytheon Standard-3 Aegis missile. In other words, it’s already done this on the practice field, and scored a kill. Kongo is currently sailing with the fleet forces of the ongoing exercise Foal Eagle being conducted in the sea of Japan. The likely scenario should Japan decide to intercept would use a SM-3 missile during the Taepodong-2′s initial ascent phase, when it is moving at its slowest, and will fall over water rather than Japan.

Also of note are the Patriot-3 batteries employed by the Japanese forces. These are the same intercept missiles that were so famous during the first gulf war for being able to knock Iraqi SCUDs out of the sky. the Patriot-3 is a greatly enhanced system capable of engaging faster moving and higher altitude targets. The first battery is located in the north of Japan at Misawa Air Base. The announced flight path falls within the engagement range of the Patriot-3, though at this point the missile will be moving very fast and (as long as the rocket is working) at high altitude.

Should the launch follow the same path as the prior Taepodong-2 launch, the second battery at Camp Narashino outside of Tokyo will also have the opportunity to take a shot, should Japan decide to try an intercept.

US Role in a Japanese Intercept

Though the current meme is that this would be a Japanese operation, there would be a significant role played by US forces in any intercept. This would include detection of the launch by US satellites from the DSP series satellite, a geosynchronous reconnaissance bird built to detect missile launches from Russia, China or even North Korea. DSP satellites were in part responsible for cueing the Patriot batteries during the first gulf war, and played a large role in their success.

Further support will include integrated command and control from a variety of coalition systems including NORAD, and likely support in fixing and tracking the North Korean launch from assets based in South Korean (Osan AFB) and overhead such as the RC-135 Cobra Ball

Geo-Political Impact of a Japanese Intercept

The geo-political ramifications of a Japanese intercept would be enormous. Japan right now amounts to a sleeping giant of the east. For more than 60 years Japan has worked hard to embrace a pacifist culture. This was to the benefit of the entire world, as Japan has historically been very successful at repeatedly conquering any nation or kingdom it felt like in the region. Japan’s focus on non-military achievements has been a driving force in the recent era of prosperity and technological advancement the world has enjoyed.

As is frequently the case in world history, it only takes one jerk to ruin a good thing. In the case a resurgent China and an increasingly belligerent North Korea has forced Japan to face the fact that no one is ever going to defend them as well as they will defend themselves. Because China has failed to contain the NORKs, Japan could be firmly placed on the path towards a re-awakinging of their Bushido tradition. The global winds of protectionism and nationalism could blow fiercely in Japan, resulting in an effort to stimulate their economy through expanded military spending and enlistment.

Excellent diagram courtesy of GlobalSecurity.org

The Shahab 3 has a range somewhat greater than 800 miles (1350 kilometers) depending on the size of the warhead. Intelligence reports are that it’s maximum payload is about a ton (1000 kg). The design is losely based off an old Soviet liquid fueled missle known as the Scud-B that was greatly modified by North Korea to create the Nodong family of missiles. These missiles are fired from mobile launchers and are notoriously hard to detect and destroy before they are launched. During the first gulf war the Iraqis were very adept at launching Scuds in a “Shoot and Scoot” manner, avoiding detection and counter-strike, even from the highly integrated US forces.

North Korea being who they are were all too happy to sell the Nodong designs to Pakistan, Iran and anyone else that could pay. There is some evidence that in the 1970′s, China collaborated with North Korea to refine the design of the Nodong systems, and there may have been some cross trading of technology with early Chinese missile projects.

During the Clinton administration the North Koreans successfully transfered the Nodong design to Iran. Iran created an industrial complex to test, engineer and enhance the Nodong and transform it into the Shahab. There is some evidence that there may have been collaboration on these enhancements from US and western European companies for some rather stiff fees.

The range of the Shahab-3 places some of the more volatile regions of the world under the threat of a Persian missile attack with little or no notice.

This includes the state of Israel, the oil fields of the middle east, the command and control centers for the US military in Qatar, our forces in Iraq, our allies in Turkey, all of Pakistan and Afghanistan, and the US’s favorite high tech outsourcing destination: India.

Am I suggesting the Iranians are about to attack these places? No, the Iranians are not that stupid. They are masters at negotiation and brinksmanship. These tests were conducted for a single purpose, to gain leverage in negotiations with the US over the fate of Iranian involvement in Iraq, and to send a warning signal to Israel that they should think twice before attacking. This message was also sent to the US that Iran looks to “The Great Satan” to control their Israeli allies unless these important areas find a Shahab headed downrange towards them.

The Iranians were successful in getting everyone’s attention, but one has to wonder how many Aegis cruisers are in the area. I am certain that ace shooters like the USS Lake Erie would find a low tech, low altitude Shahab-3 akin to shooting fish in a barrel. The Iranians are welcome to waste their toy rockets on tests, but chances of them getting one of these to a target must be very low.

This spring has seen an unusual spike in the ambient nonsense about global warming, particularly with regards to the breathless prediction by some so called scientist that an area called the Northwest Passage may be ice free by September. From the UK’s Independent:

It seems unthinkable, but for the first time in human history, ice is on course to disappear entirely from the North Pole this year.

The disappearance of the Arctic sea ice, making it possible to reach the Pole sailing in a boat through open water, would be one of the most dramatic – and worrying – examples of the impact of global warming on the planet. Scientists say the ice at 90 degrees north may well have melted away by the summer.

“From the viewpoint of science, the North Pole is just another point on the globe, but symbolically it is hugely important. There is supposed to be ice at the North Pole, not open water,” said Mark Serreze of the US National Snow and Ice Data Centre in Colorado.

If it happens, it raises the prospect of the Arctic nations being able to exploit the valuable oil and mineral deposits below these a bed which have until now been impossible to extract because of the thick sea ice above.

Word to the wise before the nations bordering the Arctic get excited about leasing energy rights or environmentalist moonbats plan protests, this prediction is far from certain.

In fact, things have been cooling dramatically during the past year or so, in part coupled by a reduction of energy from the sun, which continues its quiet phase that could be an indication of a much colder period of climate.

Of course the facts or the big picture cannot stand in the way of advocacy meteorology! Just ask the eco-tourists aboard Kapitan Khlebnikov. What is the Kapitan Khlebnikov you ask?

Lee Treloar of Canada’s Globe and Mail tells us the tale of one group of folks who bought the hot air and got stuck in the ice while looking for signs of global warming near polar Canada:

What irony. I am a passenger on one of the most powerful icebreakers in the world, travelling through the Northwest Passage – which is supposed to become almost ice-free in a time of global warming, the next shipping route across the top of the world – and here we are, stuck in the ice, engines shut down, bridge deserted. Only time and tide can free us.

The first day or two are a novelty. We take photos and enjoy the adventure. After all, isn’t this what many polar explorers went through?

Seven day’s later the Latte crowd is freed from the ice, were they any wiser?

What about this year? Of course you ask any global warming advocate and they will nod with the canon that yes indeed, this time for real the ice will be gone!

But a quick check of the temperature variations at the pole show us some concrete evidence that our quiet Sun is the one calling the shots here (hat tip to the wonderful ICECAP web site)

What you are looking at is the variation from “normal” for the north pole, compared between 2007 and 2008 (larger view on the ICECAP site). What the graphic shows is that temperature at the top end of the globe is colder this year than last. So voyage to the Northwest Passage at your leisure, but be ready to ride the ice.

One of the most powerful earthquakes known of in continental North America since European settlement was the New Madrid earthquake in 1811. Damage occurred over an area of nearly 240,000 mi², and the quake itself was felt over an area of nearly 2 million mi². Here’s a partial description of the impact:

At the onset of the earthquake the ground rose and fell – bending the trees until their branches intertwined and opening deep cracks in the ground. Landslides swept down the steeper bluffs and hillslides; large areas of land were uplifted; and still larger areas sank and were covered with water that emerged through fissures or craterlets. Huge waves on the Mississippi River overwhelmed many boats and washed others high on the shore. High banks caved and collapsed into the river; sand bars and points of islands gave way; whole islands disappeared. Surface rupturing did not occur, however. The region most seriously affected was characterized by raised or sunken lands, fissures, sinks, sand blows, and large landslides that covered an area of 78,000 – 129,000 square kilometers, extending from Cairo, Illinois, to Memphis, Tennessee, and from Crowleys Ridge to Chickasaw Bluffs, Tennessee.

Although the motion during the first shock was violent at New Madrid, Missouri, it was not as heavy and destructive as that caused by two aftershocks about 6 hours later. Only one life was lost in falling buildings at New Madrid, but chimneys were toppled and log cabins were thrown down as far distant as Cincinnati, Ohio; St. Louis, Missouri; and in many places in Kentucky, Missouri, and Tennessee.

The map above shows the estimated epicenter of the 1811 New Madrid quake. The Midwest is not an area we tend to associate with major earthquakes — we tend to think of the Pacific Rim (California, Oregon, Washington, Alaska) instead. And the truth is, things have been pretty quiet in the Midwest since the New Madrid quake.

However, a 5.2 earthquake hit Illlinois this morning and was felt over a wide area. Here’s the epicenter [NOTE: the map is updating itself; it now appears there have been several aftershocks, including one at magnitude 4.5; click on the map below to go to the USGS web site]:

Not an area where you want to see increased seismic activity. Hopefully this is just a stress-reliever for the New Madrid fault system and not a harbinger of quakes to come. ..bruce w..

[Henderson - Update]

As fate would have it, I am in Central Illinois at the moment, and the quake is the subject of quite a bit of conversation here. Most folks in the rural area around Bloomington Illinois did not feel the quake, but it did crack the ceiling at my mother’s house.

What is interesting about the location is it is outside the normal New Madrid activity area, and I am sure it will cause scientist to reconsider the geometry of the midwest fault system.

Most of the people in this part of the US are vaguely familiar with the fact that there is an active seismic zone under foot, but they do not take it seriously.

As any good geek should know by now Japan has some of the wackiest and most unusual products anywhere. So when we were visiting Tokyo recently and saw lines of Japanese schoolgirls waiting to play an amazing new game for the Wii called Super Pii Pii Brothers we were only a little surprised. After all with games like WarioWare and Raving Rabbids the Wii is no stranger to crazy gameplay mechanics… but it was quite unusual to see the “strap-on” style accessory and peeing action that Pii Pii Brothers provides. Normally ThinkGeek doesn’t carry video games, but we were so blown-away by Super Pii Pii Brothers that we immediately got our trusted Japanese importer on the phone and arranged to bring over a limited quantity of this amazing Wii game along with some cross regional boot discs to allow play on USA Wii consoles.

Uh…read the whole thing.  ..bruce w..

7:47 a.m. Guam – The Guam Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) is tasked with issuing the permit to drain the Southern High School swimming pool.

Spokesperson Tammy Andersen says no permit has been issued yet, but it is needed to ensure the contaminated water is properly disposed.

But another bizarre issue has surfaced. A witness says he has seen a mutated fish surface in the pool. Is it possible a “frankenfish” lives in the pond that is the Southern High School pool? Andersen says they are aware that fish live in the pool but hadn’t heard of such a creature taking up residence in the pool. The Department of Agriculture may be called to do the fishing but Brent Tabbitts says he’s not aware of exactly what kind of fish reside there.

Heh. Our family lived in Subic Bay (Philippines) for two years while my dad was stationed there. We used to swim at the Officers’ Club pool in our housing area. Large water bugs (think: aquatic cockroaches) swam in the pool as well. But I don’t think we had any fish, particularly not mutated ones. Hat tip to The Anomalist. ..bruce w..