I have been watching with growing levels of delight as a community of amateur satellite hunters have been tracking one of our nation’s newest space platforms, known as the X-37B.  In this age of internet pundits seeking real time vainglory for themselves, there is rampant speculation what this thing is for, with frequent references to the “weaponization of space“.

Now word from the amateur sky watchers that our toy was able to disappear for a few weeks for some “alone time” away from their telescopes and orbital tracking software.

In May, avid skywatcher Ted Molczan studied the X-37B’s orbit from his home in Toronto and said its behaviour suggested it was testing sensors for a range of new spy satellites.

Since then, the X-37B been arguably the least-secret secret project on the planet, as fellow backyard astronomers joined in the scrutiny, aided by how-to video guides and apps such as the Simple Satellite Tracker.

That is, they did until July 29, when the shuttle disappeared, causing all kinds of consternation and conspiracy theories about its fate.

It took amateur skywatcher Greg Roberts of Cape Town, South Africa, who noticed that it failed to appear as scheduled above his base on August 14, another five days to find it.

Word to the guys with the telescopes, chances that this thing is carrying a weapon are pretty much zero.  You are probably looking at the next generation of space based sensor platform courtesy of your tax dollars and the brilliant minds at the NRO.  When the Future Imagery Architecture (FIA) went down in flames, they decided to try something new, and new is a good word to describe this thing.  Unlike current space based reconnoissance platforms, this thing is maneuverable, recoverable, and can appear over a target by surprise.  Because they can bring it home, they can change out the sensors and re-configure the platform to meet changing mission demands.

As it’s current trip is its maiden voyage, I am sure there are many more tricks this thing has left to employ.  Word to the bad guys, we are still watching.

The world is a dangerous place, and today that danger went up a notch.  Our erstwhile allies, the Russians, have decided to lease a powerful Akula / Project 971 nuclear powered attack submarine to India for an extended period of time.

India has been working steadily towards a home grown (and at some point for sale on the export market) nuclear submarine.  A significant part of establishing the INS as a credible submarine force is developing the operational doctrine that goes with a nuclear boat.

The Russians have agreed to lease for 10 years attack submarine K-152 known as the Nerpa.  When re-crewed for the INS, it will be know as the INS Chakra.  This 10 year lease indicates that India is not just going to train and experiment with this powerful platform, but will likely deploy it on operational patrols.  The lessons learned operating this sophisticated machine will rapidly boost the INS’s proficiency for the day when their own subs come on line.

Akula submarines are armed with four torpedo tubes that can fire Russian type 53 torpedoes or SS-N-15 Starfish missile, with an additional 4 tubes that can launch Russian type 65 torpedoes or SS-N-16 Stallion missiles.  The Nerpa likely has an additional 6 “static” tubes attached to the hull, but it is unclear if these will be removed prior to it’s delivery to India.

Akula submarines are among the more quiet of the Russian navy, and could possibly evade some less sophisticated detection systems.  We assume the US Navy is more than up to the task of finding Akula’s anywhere they sail, but for India’s prime enemy, Pakistan, an Akula is possibly too stealthy for them to detect.

While the chances of India threatening the US are remote, this is a clear sign of an escalating arms race in south Asia, which is being driven by the Iranian weapons programs.  The lease and likely operational deployment of the Nerpa / Chakra is a clear threat to Pakistan, and will likely prompt further anti-submarine technology purchases by Islamabad.

Tonight in an address to the nation from the US Military Academy at West Point, NY, the President finally disclosed his long suffering decision on General McChrystal’s troop surge for Afghanistan. The theatrics surrounding this decision have at times bordered on comical, and at long last the president has committed to supplying most of the forces for the “Medium Risk” approach requested by the commanders in the field.

The plan is to bring 30,000 or so additional forces into Afghanistan in the next 5 months. This is 75% of the amount requested by the generals. In an October 13th article in the Washington Post; the Pentagon with the Obama administration’s blessings, is reported to have staged over 13,000 non front-line forces to Afghanistan beginning this past summer, essentially hiding the size of the surge. Largely this has been done to pacify his loony left supporters.

The core of the surge will likely be 2 battalions of combat forces, one battalion each of Marines and Army. Expect the Marines to be given the dirty work in around around the southern city of Kandahar and Helmand provence, and the Army to take the long hard grind of securing the eastern frontier and stemming the flow of men and weapons in from Pakistan’s western tribal areas.

While the public decision and announcement has been carefully orchestrated to help channel the public reaction (especially on the left), the preparations for the surge have been underway since April of 2009. The above cited 13,000 troops perform support, administration and maintenance tasks for combat forces. This includes combat and civil engineering units, medical and hospital personnel, intelligence specialists and military police and security units. In other words, the support infrastructure has been slowly put in place during 2009, with the final announcement of 30,000 or so combat forces being the finishing touch.

Reports in the press dutifully remark at the “dramatic pace” of the deployment. This is pure political drama, as the preparations have been in place for some time. In fact, most of the units being deployed have known for several months that they were headed for Afghanistan, and have been undergoing intensive training at locations such as Fort Irwin and Camp Pendleton in California. Coupled with this surge of US combat forces, there will be increased commitments from NATO, and not just from the non-fighting countries, but from the hard warriors of the UK, Canada and Poland.

In reality the timing of the surge is as much about the calendar as it is about politics. Since the start of Operation Enduring Freedom in late 2001, the Taliban tend to wind down operations during the fall and winter months. It is simply too cold and hostile and environment to conduct other than background insurgent operations at a low level, such as IEDs and vehicle bombing of civilian areas. This seasonal slowdown provides a natural and handy window to transport and acclimate units into the harsh, high altitude conditions of the country. look for the surge combat forces to be in Afghanistan not later than late March, in time to train in-country in the cold, thin air. Once acclimatized, they will be forward based to the Afghan eastern and southern frontier for combat operations starting in the spring.

Even with the increased force levels, the President is in a very difficult situation. The Taliban and their imported Arab jihad goons know that in a square fight with US units, they are instant martyrs. Rather than facing them openly in the field of battle, the Taliban will continue to fight an insurgent strategy. Their plan is to wear down the Americans through attrition both kinetic and political. By drawing them into protracted battles in village areas (where they are more likely to find friendly locals) they increase the chances of causing the US to use their superior firepower in a situation where there are mass civilian casualties. Make no mistake, the Taliban’s desired end game looks like a replay of the fall of Saigon.

Without a change in the rules of engagement, and a willingness to hunt and kill the Taliban, house to house if needed, the US is in a precarious position. With Pakistan unable to stop the flow of arms and men into the eastern Afghan provinces, the Taliban are willing to fight down to the last Saudi martyr.

Last but certainly not least is the thorny issue of the declared summer of 2011 withdrawal date. As with the delay on announcing the surge (which was just window dressing), this was largely to provide political cover for the president. In conversations with military leaders, that date will arrive and victory will be declared, even if they are still busy stomping the daylights out of the Taliban. As one clever military officer relayed “There was no promise on the rate of the draw down, just the start date”.

To avoid the trap and seize the initiate, this rookie President, whose political base won’t let him embrace the enemy must allow his generals to surprise the enemy starting in the next few months. They must take the fight to them with overwhelming numbers and “over the top” violence, in spite of the uproar it will cause among the so called “Arab street” and the democratic fringe. Superior strength and the demonstrated ability to use it will be respected., weak dithering and worrying over collateral damage will quickly invite defeat.

By stepping up and committing to the surge, President Obama has taken ownership of this war. Win or lose, he has reluctantly, at long last, acted as commander and chief.

That's Darren on the right (his sister Deirdre is hugging him)

I’ve been running around since early this morning and didn’t get a chance to put up our annual Veterans Day post listing the vets in our respective families. Here it is.

=============

Bruce Webster:

• CPL Darren Green, USMC (active) — just returned from a tour in Helmand Province, Afghanistan (see photo above) [nephew]
• CPL Jon A. Webster, USMC (active) —  served in al Rutbah, Iraq; now stationed at Camp Pendleton, CA [son]
• Heather Harris, US Army National Guard (former) — [daughter]
• Greg Barsic, USMC (former), USCG (active) — currently serving in the US Coast Guard in San Diego [son-in-law]
• Frank Wallace, USMC (former) — [married to my niece Deirdre, the one hugging Darren in the photo above]
• Brad Poeltler, USN (ret.) — former Naval aviator in the F-14 RAG [brother-in-law]
• Robert Wendt, USN (ret.) –  former Navy pilot [former brother-in-law]
• Bill Lowell, US Army (former) — [former brother-in-law]
• John A. Webster, USN (ret.) — served in both WW II and Vietnam [my father]
• James Francis Webster, USN — served in WW II [my paternal grandfather]
• John Silas Fickes, CSM, USN — served in WW I, Mexican War (1920), and WW II [my maternal grandfather]
• John William Fickes, 1st Sgt., Co. A, PA Militia, 8th Reg. Infantry — served in Spanish-American War [my great-grandfather]
• James Edward Taylor, Pvt. Co. D, II PA Volunteer Infantry — Civil War [my great-great-grandfather]

Bruce Henderson:

• Andy Henderson, USN (active) — [nephew] Currently at sea with the forward deployed USS George Washington out of Yokosuka, Japan.
• Bruce Henderson, USMC (former) — Yes, I was a Jar Head
• Peter Anderson, USMC — My dear departed uncle Peter served with Marine Intel during Vietnam
• Jim Zimmerman, Illinois National Guard (former) — My uncle Jim served 2 tours in the National Guard
• Ian Henderson, RAF — [my dear departed father] RAF pilot who served the crown during the Battle of Britain as well the far east as a flight leader. He lied about his age to join the flight corps and was a decorated Ace for combat action.
• Ron Henderson, RAF — [uncle] RAF radio man,
• Robert Zimmerman, USN — My dear departed step-grandfather served in the US Navy during WW2
• Howard Martin, USN — My biological grandfather was a pilot who died in WWII when my mother was just a child

God bless them all, and God bless America. ..bruce w..

I’ve got a nephew (CPL Darren Green, USMC) who’s just coming back from Afghanistan (Helmand Province, no less). I’m very thankful he wasn’t one of the ones that Pres. Obama met at midnight at Dover AFB, and that my sister, brother-in-law, and niece didn’t have to travel there to meet him as well. While (like Henderson) I appreciate him taking the time to comfort those who have lost loved ones in action, such acts are pretty meaningless unless he either gives our forces in Afghanistan what they need or pulls them out altogether.

Cartoon by Ramirez from the Washington Times.  ..bruce w..

Hat tip to American Digest for the link. I’m in the early part of a two-day winter storm, still struggling a bit with the flu and reading documents. I’ll be back by the weekend.  ..bruce w..

Cartoon by Nate Beeler at the Washington Examiner. And now from S. Weasel over at, well, S. Weasel:

On the road for the next few days; postings may be light.  ..bruce w..

Hat tip on the video to Matt Yuen, a long-time friend and fellow PMS Commando (that writeup in from world-famous author (and budding politician) Dan Gookin, another one of the Commandos). You jump out of the same plane together, and you definitely are friends for life . . . however brief that may end up being.

ITEM: Obama is losing the ACLU, which (along with the press) is unhappy with the limits on access to detainees at Gitmo:

American Civil Liberties Union Director Anthony Romero said the access problems grate against the administration’s pledges.

“It’s frustrating,” Romero told FOX News during an interview at the Navy base.

He said his organization has never been allowed inside the detention camps — not under the Bush or Obama administrations — but suggested that he was expecting more access since Jan. 20.

“Especially now in light of the Obama administration saying they wish to have greater transparency, it’s more than a bit ironic that members of the press are now being denied access to the camps when they had it before under President Bush,” he said.

The beat reporters who routinely cover the military commissions at the base used to be invited on military-planned side trips to the detention camps when court was not in session. The trips allowed journalists to film, photograph and write about conditions inside.

That is no longer the case. Several sources told FOX News the decision to discontinue the trips came from Washington and the Pentagon.

Where’s that hope, change and transparency now? Welcome to the Chicago Way.

ITEM: Joshua Zumbrum over at Forbes gives eight reasons to remain wary about the housing market, including the end of the housing tax credit, tightened credit standards among mortgage vendors, and the flood of foreclosures still to come. Read the whole thing.

On the other hand, Megan McArdle (my favorite tall female libertarian economist) sees positive signs:

Amid everything the government is doing in the economy, it’s easy to forget that they’ve been putting quite a lot of effort into supporting house prices.  (Supporting, a relative term, in this case meaning keeping them from falling farther).  The FHA has stepped in as the lender of last resort, while the first time homebuyer tax credits have encouraged at least a few people to jump into the market.  Meanwhile, the mortgage modification efforts have kept some foreclosures from happening–but since optimistic estimates place the projected redefaults at 35%, and more conservative estimates look for half or more of the modifications to fail, many of those foreclosures have simply been delayed, and will end up back on the market in winter and early spring.

We’ll see what happens.

[UPDATED 09/30/09 -- 0625 MDT]

ITEM: Warmist Countdown Watch: Successive earthquakes have hit near Samoa (causing 99 deaths due to tsunamis) and now in Indonesia. These are tragedies in a geologically active part of the world. The question is: how long until some Warmists start claiming that these quakes are tied into climate change? (Don’t laugh — it’s an actual set of Warmist beliefs.)

ITEM: “The State doesn’t own my body!” Pro-choice protest? Well, of a sort:

New York is the first state in the country to mandate flu vaccinations for its health care workers. The first doses of swine flu vaccine will be available beginning next week. Much of it is reserved for state health care workers, but there is growing opposition to required innoculations.

Health care workers in Hauppauge screamed “No forced shots!” as they rallied Tuesday against the state regulation requiring them to roll up their sleeves.

I’m pro-vaccination, but it must be a bit disquieting to have health care workers protest and risk losing their jobs over receiving mandatory vaccinations.

ITEM: Andrew Malcolm, over at the LA Times’ “Top of the Ticket” political blog, is always worth reading. Wherever his political sympathies may lie, he’s willing to poke — and poke hard — at failings and foibles all across the political spectrum. His latest analysis of Obama’s growing struggle with Afghanistan is worth reading in full:

Signs are growing that Obama will seek to change the war goals, to redefine what is success and divert the discussion away from the more-troops measure. It’s not defeat in Afghanistan; it’s victory of a different kind. The president used a similar strategic argument recently when abandoning the Bush administration’s missile defense shield in Europe: it’s not less defense, it’s defense done smarter and cheaper.

Biden reportedly opposes additional forces. He was a senator when Obama was a sixth grader, and recalls too vividly the last Democratic administration to pour U.S. soldiers into a distant guerrilla war — and lose. That savagely split his party — and nation — and lead to 20 years of Republican presidents in the next 24.

In a Wall Street Journal op-ed earlier this week, Sen. John Kerry, who succeeded Biden as chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee, began the Afghan redefinition.

Kerry, who was in the Vietnam war before he was against it, said that 1) things have changed in Afghanistan since last spring, 2) perhaps what we need is not more troops but a “well-honed counter-terrorism strategy,” 3) the recent Afghan election was deeply flawed and maybe it’s the fault of a weak, untrusted Afghan government if we can’t win militarily and 4) we need to plan how to get out.

As I said, read the whole thing.  Then go over to the Washington Examiner to check out the “ducks-in-a-row” approach the Obama Administration is taking (with a helpful assist from the mainstream media).

ITEM: As noted here a few days ago, much of Leftist thinking can be summed up as if you fervently hope for something good to come true, then it will. This is especially true in the “green/alternative energy” domain, where hopes for magical breakthroughs in solar and wind power ignore serious issues of energy density and production. As it turns out, there’s another big problem with many of these “new energy” ideas: they often require a lot of old-fashioned H2O:

Here is an inconvenient truth about renewable energy: It can sometimes demand a huge amount of water. Many of the proposed solutions to the nation’s energy problems, from certain types of solar farms to biofuel refineries to cleaner coal plants, could consume billions of gallons of water every year.

“When push comes to shove, water could become the real throttle on renewable energy,” said Michael E. Webber, an assistant professor at the University of Texas in Austin who studies the relationship between energy and water.

Read the whole thing.  ..bruce w..

Remember that old saying about never pick a fight with someone who buys ink by the barrel? It applies even more with someone with as solid a ‘net reputation as Michael Yon. The British Media Ops over in Helmand Province (where my nephew, USMC CPL Darren Green, is serving) ended Yon’s embed with the British Army in an effort to shut him up.  Wrong move:

The Major said again that Lt. Col. Nick Richardson demanded that I leave RC-South, and that Media Ops would forward my satellite and night vision gear that was in transit.  Before the Major had stomped out, I said that I was not leaving Camp Bastion until those packages were in my hands.  I told him to call Lt. Col. Nick Richardson at Lashkar Gah—a nearby base—and say that if Richardson wants me gone, he’d need to call the Royal Military Police (RMP).  The satellite gear is crucial to the operation and the night vision gear is expensive.  I was not going to leave without the gear unless under arrest.  I had heard the Major arrogantly tell a correspondent how a soldier had punched another correspondent and “knocked him on his ass.”  Bullying apparently had been working for him; he was still doing it.

“Go ahead,” I said, “Call the RMPs right now.  Have them come down and flex cuff me and put me on an airplane out of here.”  I waited for the RMP’s to arrive and arrest me.  At least they would be professionals.

There is the maxim that a customer can judge the cleanliness of a restaurant’s kitchen by the restroom.  After much experience in Iraq and Afghanistan, I have discovered another: Soldiers always treat correspondents they way they treat the local people.  When soldiers treat correspondents badly, they treat local people even worse and are creating enemies.  Those troops who brag about how they mistreat or detest correspondents are abusing and resentful of the local population, and they cannot win this sort of war.  The people will kill them and the media will bash them and they will blame the people and the media.  When a soldier alienates sympathetic correspondents, he has no real chance against mortal enemies such as the Taliban and al Qaeda, and they will defeat him.  Yet there is subtlety: for “the people,” in the case of Media Ops, is you.

Be sure to take the time to read the whole thing. If there were any sense and/or justice in the world of journalism, Michael Yon would have received the Pulitzer Prize several times over.

And while you’re at it, go support Yon. He’s entirely self-funded. I don’t subscribe to any news magazines or newspapers. But I pay $10/month via my PayPal account to keep Yon out in the field.

Worth every penny.  ..bruce w..

Crocodile tears

ITEM: See the guy weeping above? This is the ACORN community organizer (the paper’s phrase, not mine) in San Diego who offered to help smuggle underage girl into the United States for prostitution. Turns out that ACORN actually fired him.

NATIONAL CITY – Local ACORN officials reversed an earlier decision Thursday afternoon and fired a community organizer who was caught on video providing advice about human smuggling to a couple posing as a pimp and a prostitute.

In an afternoon press conference, Lagstein said he believed his employee, Juan Carlos Vera, did his best to deal with a challenging situation, and would not be disciplined.

But two hours later, Lagstein stated he had reevaluated the videos posted online in which Vera was secretly filmed answering questions about smuggling people across the Tijuana border. Lagstein said in his earlier evaluation, he had only found a short, 52-second video, and not a longer seven-minute video. After consulting with supervisors and state ACORN officials, he decided Vera had contradicted his earlier statements and his conduct was “unacceptable.”

The recording showed Vera appearing to suggest he could help get people across the border and asking the woman posing as a prostitute how much her services cost.

At the news conference, Lagstein said the organization is “furious” that hidden cameras filmed employees of the community-organizing group, and he called such actions “immoral if not illegal.”

Unlike, say, all the ACORN workers giving advice on child prostitution? But wait — it gets better:

[Lagstein] also added that “we accept the imperfections that it exposed.”

Vera was at the news conference and he gave an emotional recounting of what happened. He broke into tears at least twice.

He said that English isn’t his first language and that he was confused about what was going on. He said he was just trying to help.

ITEM: Speaking of ACORN, JammieWearingFool posts this Jay Leno clip:

ITEM: Charlie Cook over at the National Journal wonders if the Democratic leadership is really aware of their potential problems in 2010:

. . . Democrats ought to keep in mind that 84 of their current House members represent districts won by President Bush in 2004 or John McCain in 2008.

A whopping 48 of those Democrats — eight more than the size of their party’s majority — are from districts that voted for both Bush and McCain. That America is very different from the Democratic base in blue America, and it sees many major issues very differently. . . .

The 17-point advantage that Democrats enjoyed in the January Gallup Poll (when “leaners” were included) shrank to 5 points in August. Their edge on the generic congressional ballot test has vanished, according to most national polls. For three years, Democrats enjoyed high single-digit or low double-digit leads on this question — a very good indicator of which direction (and how hard) the political winds are blowing as a congressional election nears.

Read the whole thing.

ITEM: Dana Milbank — who, to his everlasting credit, seems just as willing to aim his snark at the Obama White House as he did at the Bush White House — rolls his journalistic eyes at Michelle Obama’s visit to a nearby “farmer’s market” in DC:

The first lady had encouraged Freshfarm Markets, the group that runs popular farmers markets in Dupont Circle and elsewhere, to set up near the White House, and she helped get the approvals to shut down Vermont Avenue during rush hour on Thursdays. But the result was quite the opposite of a quaint farmers market. Considering all the logistics, each tomato she purchased had a carbon footprint of several tons.

The promotion of organic and locally grown food, though an admirable cause, is a risky one for the Obamas, because there’s a fine line between promoting healthful eating and sounding like a snob. The president, when he was a candidate in 2007, got in trouble in Iowa when he asked a crowd, “Anybody gone into Whole Foods lately and see what they charge for arugula?” Iowans didn’t have a Whole Foods.

For that reason, it’s probably just as well that the first lady didn’t stop by the Endless Summer Harvest tent yesterday. The Virginia farm had a sign offering “tender baby arugula” — hydroponically grown, pesticide free — and $5 for four ounces, which is $20 a pound.

Obama, in her brief speech to the vendors and patrons, handled the affordability issue by pointing out that people who pay with food stamps would get double the coupon value at the market. Even then, though, it’s hard to imagine somebody using food stamps to buy what the market offered: $19 bison steak from Gunpowder Bison, organic dandelion greens for $12 per pound from Blueberry Hill Vegetables, the Piedmont Reserve cheese from Everson Dairy at $29 a pound. Rounding out the potential shopping cart: $4 for a piece of “walnut dacquoise” from the Praline Bakery, $9 for a jumbo crab cake at Chris’s Marketplace, $8 for a loaf of cranberry-walnut bread and $32 for a bolt of yarn.

The first lady said the market would particularly appeal to federal employees in nearby buildings to “pick up some good stuff for dinner.” Yet even they might think twice about spending $3 for a pint of potatoes when potatoes are on sale for 40 cents a pound at Giant. They could get nearly five dozen eggs at Giant for the $5 Obama spent for her dozen.

Again, be sure to read the whole thing.

ITEM: Speaking of snark, this item over at the Politico tries to dish some up in reviewing the Right’s adoption of Saul Alinsky, but ends up making some grudging admissions:

Still, enough of the co-opting is intentional that the Democrats might be wise to stop snarking, sit up, and take notice. And some of it is already working, notes Lakoff: In the health care debate, he says, the right has taken “all the progressive arguments and made them conservative arguments.”

Says Zelizer: “The tactics can be powerful. Direct confrontation, community organizing, in-your-face politics, as we’ve seen in August, can get a lot of media attention and can scare politicians away from taking certain positions.”

They can also be their own reward. At FreedomWorks, says Brandon, “We’re having fun. I have been pissing people off left and right calling myself a progressive, because I’m fighting myself against the establishment.”

And, according to Alinsky, that’s one of the keys to a good uprising: As he put it in “Rules for Radicals,” “A good tactic is one that your people enjoy. If your people are not having a ball doing it, there is something very wrong with the tactic.”

Heh. Not only did we have a lot of fun in DC last Saturday, we left it clean — unlike some gatherings.

ITEM: Lots of coverage on Obama’s abandonment of Eastern Europe, reconsigning it to be Russia’s “near abroad”, and doing so on the 70th anniversary of Stalin’s invasion of Poland, so I won’t repeat it here. However, Darleen at Protein Wisdom did put up this great cartoon by Ramirez:

ITEM: Oops!

SPOKANE, Wash. — A killer committed to Eastern State Hospital in 1987 escaped Thursday during a supervised field trip to the Spokane County Interstate Fair, resulting in a manhunt and a freeze on further field trips from the mental institution.

Phillip Arnold Paul, 57, was last seen Thursday morning in the northeast part of the fairgrounds, Spokane County sheriff’s Sgt. Dave Reagan said. A store clerk told authorities she saw someone matching Paul’s description later in the morning, and authorities believe he managed to get outside the fairgrounds.

ITEM: And we’ll wrap up with ACORN again, the gift that promises to keep giving for some time to come:

..bruce w..