Next-to-the-last day of the cruise. Spent the whole day at sea today, on our way from St. Thomas to the Bahamas, sailing past and north of our previous stops at Puerto Rico and Grand Turk. This meant more panels and activities today, and some great panels they were, including one on the realities of political leadership with former Governor John Sununu, former Governor Tim Pawlenty, former Senator Fred Thompson, and Tony Blankley. Had the chance at lunch, at dinner, and at receptions to spend time talking with Jim Geraghty, Victor Davis Hanson, John Yoo, Andrew Klavan, Fred Thompson, Rich Lowry, and John J. Miller. The whole day was capped off with an absolutely hilarious late night session with Mark Steyn, Jonah Goldberg, and Roman Genn.

The big discussion through the cruise has been and remains: which candidate for the Republicans? No one among the speakers seems terribly happy with any of the candidates, though a few of the big-name speakers (Sununu, Pawlenty) have formally endorsed Romney. The real concern is that, in spite of truly wretched prolonged economic conditions, Obama could be re-elected anyway — and that if that happens, we just won’t be able to avoid a true financial collapse of some sort. It’s not at all clear we can avoid it even if Obama is defeated.

Rough seas ahead, folks.  ..bruce w..

Jay Nordlinger conducted a wide-ranging interview with Mark Steyn, who was in fine form. It was followed by a panel on liberal media bias, run by John J. Miller and featuring John Fund, Cal Thomas, S. E. Cupp, and Jonah Goldberg.

At dinner tonight, we had the pleasure of having John O’Sullivan and his wonderful wife Melissa at our table, along with Milt & Sue Bird and Lou Dombro. Milt is almost 90 and looks better than most of us will hope to look at 70; Sue, whose family escaped from Nazi Germany in 1939 (after her father spent 6 months in a concentration camp) — and who remembers the day when she found all the windows smashed in her family’s home on morning — is likewise lovely.

We’re back at sea now, headed for San Juan, Puerto Rico, where we’ll arrive tomorrow afternoon. ..bruce..

There’s a late session tonight (with James Lileks, Andew Klavan, and S. E. Cupp), but I’m frankly worn out by the steady roll of the ship (due to steady 30+ knot winds blowing from the east) and we’ve got an 8:30 snorkling excursion in the morning (we arrive at Grand Turk around 7 am). I may yet run down to listen a bit, but I’m whipped. ..bruce..

…you probably just didn’t expect it to be so well done. Hat tip to American Digest. ..bruce w..

[Original song above -- I lack the talent and mad skillz to do a parody recording myself]

Well I don’t know how I’ll keep my career
I got the feeling that I’m out on my rear
I’m so scared that my pension is gone
And my furniture is out on the lawn
Europe to the left of me, China to the right
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you.

Yes I’m stuck in the middle with you
And I’m wondering what the hell is you do
Flyin’ Air Force One all over the place
Raisin’ money for your 20-12 race
Teleprompters to the left of you,
‘Prompters to the right
Here I am, stuck in the middle with you. 

Well you started out with nothing
And you’re proud that you’re a self-made man
And your lobbyists come callin’
Slap you on the back and say ‘Please, please.’ 

Well, the US dollar’s gone in the tank
Doesn’t matter, we’ve got none at the bank
Greece is pulling Europe over the falls
And Beijing’s ’bout to hit their own walls
Europe to the left of us, China to the right
Here we are, stuck in the middle with you. 

Well you won in 20-08
And you’ve made a real mess of things since
Now the voters will come callin’
Look you in the face and say ‘Leave, please.’ 

Well, our country now is trillions in hock
It gets worse with every tick of the clock
The economy is set to collapse
And you’re mulliganing out on the grass
Europe to the left of us, China to the right
Here we are, stuck in the middle with you. 
(Yes we’re) stuck in the middle with you
Stuck in the middle with you
(Here we are) stuck in the middle with you.

(with apologies to the late, great Gerry Rafferty)

(Click on image for full size)

Honestly: our defense spending is high. We’re still embroiled in both Iraq and Afghanistan, and while we’re withdrawing from Iraq, it really is unclear (President Obama’s various pronouncements notwithstanding) when and under what circumstances we’ll actually leave. So, yes, if we weren’t spending the money we’re spending on defense, we’d have a lower deficit.

Maybe.

On the other hand, as the chart above — taken from Kleiner Perkins’ “USA, Inc.” report — shows, US defense spending is below the average for the post-war average up until we found ourselves in Afghanistan and Iraq. And that holds true all during the past decade of war. There’s a common liberal myth that those wars cost trillions of dollars and are entirely responsible for our current deficits. Kleiner Perkins begs to differ:

Not cheap by any means, though it’s hard to predict where we’d be and what we’d be facing if we hadn’t gone in when we did.  ..bruce w..

(Click on image for full-size version)

The Kleiner-Perkins “USA, Inc.” report offers possible solutions to the financial nightmare that the US Federal Government — and all of us taxpayers — are facing. I don’t agree with some of these — I think the empty results of the “Stimulus” pretty much negate the first item in #4 — but it’s telling how few of these are solutions that President Obama and the Congressional Democrats have been willing to entertain. The real question is: which ones are the rest of us willing to deal with?  ..bruce w..

I’m going to continue to post graphs and slides from Kleiner Perkin’s “USA, Inc.” report for some time. Here’s some of their text that accompanies this graph:

Take a step back, and imagine what the founding fathers would think if they saw how our country’s finances have changed. From 1790 to 1930, government spending on average accounted for just 3% of American GDP. Today, government spending absorbs closer to 24% of GDP.

It’s likely that they would be even more surprised by the debt we have taken on to pay for this expansion. As a percentage of GDP, the federal government’s public debt has doubled over the last 30 years, to 53% of GDP. This figure does not include claims on future resources from underfunded entitlements and potential liabilities from Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the Government Sponsored Enterprises (GSEs). If it did include these claims, gross federal debt accounted for 94% of GDP in 2010. The public debt to GDP ratio is likely to triple to 146% over the next 20 years, per CBO. The main reason is entitlement expense. Since 1970, these costs have grown 5.5 times faster than GDP, while revenues have lagged, especially corporate tax revenues. By 2037, cumulative deficits from Social Security could add another $11.6 trillion to the public debt.

Yep. As the famous saying goes, the problem with socialism is that you eventually run out of other people’s money. Read the whole report, if you haven’t already. ..bruce w..

Most anyone in the IT industry for any length of time knows about Kleiner Perkins, one of the most successful venture capital firms in modern times. Well, as it turns out, Kleiner Perkins put its own people to work analyzing the US Federal Government as if it were a business, one that Kleiner Perkins might invest in.

It is a wonderful, if sobering and in places horrifying document, with page after page of slides and tables laying out just how fundamentally unsound the US Federal Government is as a going concern. Here’s another typical example:

You can download the full PDF report here. I suggest you send it to your Representative and to your Senators, but only after you’ve read it yourselves. ..bruce w..

Despite occasional efforts by progressives to assure us that the deficit doesn’t matter, or doesn’t matter that much, it does.

Our country is bankrupt. It’s not bankrupt in 30 years or five years. It’s bankrupt today.

Want proof? Look at President Barack Obama’s 2010 budget. It showed a massive fiscal gap over the next 75 years, the closure of which requires immediate tax increases, spending cuts, or some combination totaling 8 percent of gross domestic product. To put 8 percent of GDP in perspective, this year’s employee and employer payroll taxes for Social Security and Medicare will amount to just 5 percent of GDP.

Actually, the picture is much worse. Nothing in economics says we should look out just 75 years when considering the present-value difference between future spending and future taxes. Over the full long-term, we need an extra 12 percent, not 8 percent, of GDP annually. . . .

The bottom line, then, is that we need to look at the infinite-horizon fiscal gap not just for Social Security, but for the entire federal government. That analysis, based on the Congressional Budget Office’s long-term alternative fiscal scenario, shows an unfathomable fiscal gap of $202 trillion. And covering this gap requires coming up with the aforementioned 12 percent of GDP, forever.

Read the whole thing. ..bruce w..