Primary turnout — not really a problem?

My co-blogger Bruce Henderson, as well as a number of other commentators in both new and old media, have raised concerns about the fall election prospects for Republicans given the disparity (typically around 2:1) between Democratic primary turnout and Republican primary turnout in the same state.

However, Will Franklin over at WILLisms — who always does a great job of going back to the numbers — shows that there have been similar disparities in previous election years and yet Republicans have ended up winning the general election, sometimes in a landslide:

Look at 1988, for example. That was a record year. Democrats demolished Republicans in the primaries, yet it was a sweeping landslide for George Herbert Walker Bush over Michael Dukakis in November. Despite plenty of enthusiasm in the primaries, general election turnout (50.1%) was the second lowest of the past twelve presidential elections (only better than 49.1% in 1996).

Look at 1980, when Democrats had six million more primary voters than Republicans. Ronald Reagan went on to destroy Jimmy Carter in the general election.

Will has a table showing primary and election results for every Presidential election going back to 1972. Only twice — in 1996 and 2000 — did the Republicans have a greater turnout than the Democrats in the primaries. And yet Republicans won 6 out of those 9 elections.

This is not to say there aren’t reasons for Republicans to be concerned. But based on history, the differences in primary turnout are not a significant predictor as to how the election will fall.  ..bruce w..

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Category: 2008 Election, Main, US Politics