Project Hardtack – 1 Year On

| May 25, 2007

National single family home inventory just went over 1.9 Million over on the Hardtack experiment

For a while a few weeks ago it looked like the inventory rocket was leveling out, but in reality it was taking a short breather before climbing ever higher. I have no idea when this will slow down, but it is becoming rather impressive. A few caveats:

1) Rest assured this is not all of the houses for sale in the US, we are only tracking the 300 largest metropolitan areas.
2) The data is not 100% accurate, because I am sure there are some funky things in the MLSs

We are pretty much at 1 year since I ran the first experiments, so we can do some interesting comparisons (the web site only shows data from early Feb, because that was the real start date for the broader effort).

Bakersfield Single Family
May 29, 2006 5,688 Units: $325,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 6,717 Units: $280,000 Median Price

1,029 (+18%) more houses in the MLS than Memorial Day last year, and a $45,000 (-13%) drop in median price.

Bloomington, IL Single Family
May 30, 2006 1,563 Units: $174,900 Median Price
May 24, 2007 1,020 Units: $192,900 Median Price

-543 (-35%) fewer houses in the MLS than Memorial Day last year, and a $18,000 (+10%) appreciation in median price. So the bubble is still cruising along in this small town in the midwest.

Boise, ID Single Family
May 30, 2006 4,119 Units: $269,950 Median Price
May 24, 2007 6,928 Units: $272,000 Median Price

2,809 (68%) more houses in the MLS than Memorial Day last year, and $2,050 (1%) appreciation in median price. Big inventory overhang there.

Boston, MA Single Family
May 30, 2006 22,643 Units: $450,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 30,437 Units: $397,500 Median Price

7,794 (34%) more houses on the market, and a $52,500 (-12%) drop in median price.

Cleveland, OH Single Family
May 30, 2006 16,029 Units: $164,900 Median Price
May 24, 2007 26,752 Units: $149,900 Median Price

10,723 (67%) more houses in the MLS than a year ago, and $15,000 (-9%) drop in median price.

Denver, CO Single Family
May 30, 2006 20,818 Units: $269,500 Median Price
May 24, 2007 25,257 Units: $286,500 Median Price

4,439 (21%) more houses in the MLS than last Memorial Day, and a $17,000 (6%) median price increase

Kansas City, MO Single Family
May 30, 2006 20,803 Units: $179,900 Median Price
May 24, 2007 20,390 Units: $180,900 Median Price

Kansas City is holding its own with inventory and price essentially flat from a year ago

Las Vegas, NV Single Family
May 30, 2006 17,728 Units: $369,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 24,929 Units: $336,000 Median Price

Las Vegas has 7,201 (41%) more houses in the MLS with a -$33,000 (-9%) Median price drop from Memorial Day last year. If you want to see pain, lets look at Condos:

May 30, 2006 4.070 Condos: $225,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 6,454 Condos: $216,900 Median Price

Thats a 59% inventory increase year over year and 4% decline in median price

Phoenix, AZ Single Family
May 30, 2006 32,395 Units: $341,990 Median Price
May 24, 2007 40,316 Units: $325,000 Median Price

For Phoenix that means 24% more inventory and a median price drop of 5%

Sacramento, CA Single Family
May 30, 2006 14,762 Units: $458,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 16,494 Units: $414,000 Median Price

Sacramento, not as bad as I expected with a 12% year over year inventory increase and a 10% median price drop.

San Diego, CA Single Family
May 30, 2006 11,964 Units: $640,000 Median Price
May 24, 2007 13,256 Units: $580,000 Median Price

San Diego comes in with 11% more inventory than Memorial Day last year and a 9% drop in median price

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Category: Economics, Information Technology, Main, Mashups, Recession Watch

About the Author ()

Bruce Henderson is a former Marine who focuses custom data mining and visualization technologies on the economy and other disasters.

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