Stuper Tuesday – Obligatory Post

| February 4, 2008

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Tomorrow is “Super Tuesday” as they call it, the one day where the majority of the nominating delegates for each party are chosen on a single day. This year it’s larger than ever, with several states having moved their primary voting up to February 5th to play a relevant part in selecting the party’s presidential candidates.

The net effect is to front load the primary process, and in the end hideously dragging out the contest to elect the president, and probably ensuring the least qualified candidate is nominated by each party.

If you have been reading this blog for long, you know that I find the entire slate of candidates from all the parties to be complete losers. But for your entertainment, my opinions on everyone who (I think) is still in the race

Democrats

Hillary Clinton – There is no reason she should be considered for this post except her husband was president. She is one of the more frightening people in American politics in my life time. That being said she would be no worse than her husband was. I recall all of the predictions of doom when that clown was elected, and guess what – he did not, in fact, destroy the country. Prediction – Strong likelihood to be the nominee for the Democratic party this time.

Barak Obama – I have stated before I believe he will be our first black president. I honestly think he should go broaden his experience outside sitting around the stuffy old senate. Go run a company or a big international organization. There is plenty of time for you to be prez once the next term is done, and you will be better getting out of Washington. Prediction – While he might be the nominee this time, my bet is we see him again in 2012, at which point he cleans up.

Republicans

Mike Huckabee – At first I thought he was an amusing fellow, a side show to the main event. But at present I have to wonder what his game is. He is a distance 3rd, and rather than trying to gain against the assumed leader (McCain) he is trying to tear down the presumed #2, Mitt Romney. While some think it’s because he is trying out for a senior position in a possible McCain administration, I worry it is something more sinister. Specifically some bias against members of the Mormon faith that may in some ways be related to his past as a Southern Baptist minister. I sure hope I am wrong here, but it’s not tough to find web sites proclaiming “A Vote for Romney is a Vote For Satan” from the stupid wing of the Christian faith. Prediction – Never taken seriously again for national public office. Might get a job as a commentator of Fox News, but I hope not.

John McCain – Sadly Senator McCain has been charging hard to the left for the last decade or so. While it has made him popular with the media, they are not going to be voting in November. He is a war hero, and many thanks to him for the hell he endured in North Vietnam. I don’t think that makes him qualified to be President. I am sure that if elected he could govern the country, but I would rather not have someone with his short temper as reputation for grudges as commander in chief. I wish him the best of luck. Prediction – Likely nominee for the Republican side. If so he may lose big to the Democrats in November. This is more because the majority of the nation is ready for someone other than Bush in the White House, and I am guessing that means no one with an (R) after them will get elected this time.

Ron Paul – The first things I heard about this guy convinced me he was a nut. A full blown bull goose loony who had galvanize a collection of folks to back him up enough that he could make a run for it. He has had remarks attributed to him that would put him in line with those that think that September 11th was an “inside job”. I have since been convinced that this is not something he ever said or supports. Once again some of his supporters are over the edge of reason it would seem. Some of his economic plans would likely help a great deal, though his position of isolationism would amplify the coming financial crisis a great deal, and maybe not to a beneficial end. Prediction – Won’t poll above 15% most likely, has some worthy ideas but let too many tin foil hat types associate with him publicly. If you try this again work hard to keep those people at a distance.

Mitt Romney – This guy has worried me from the start. I am pretty sure it’s the arrogance. Sure he is an important guy who built huge businesses and pulled off an Olympics in Salt Lake that were on course to crash and burn. But he seems to ooze slime from every pore when I see him talk, and the clincher for me was an interview where they were discussing the war in Iraq. When asked if he would send his own sons to serve, he claimed they were already serving the country by working on his campaign. Maybe he misspoke, but to equivocate between our troops in Iraq eating nasty food and being shot at as the same level of commitment to riding around on chartered jets and attending fund raisers showed a significant disconnect from reality. The kind of disconnect we have seen too much of for the last 20 years. Prediction – A valiant fight to wrest front runner status from McCain going on this moment. He will do well tomorrow but fall short of being the nominee. He benefits from being the “Not McCain” which is a good position right now. Look for him to be back in 2012.

Overall Prediction

I honestly think any of these people could probably survive one term as president without destroying everything we know about America. I know the pundits would sometimes tend to protray otherwise, but the president does not have overwhelming control of the country.

The main force for the next 4-10 years will be the fallout and echos of the financial turmoil that is beginning to bubble to the surface and will cause increasing amounts of trouble throughout this year and next. Whomever is president will incorrectly get a great deal of the blame for this, though there is little they can do to remedy it. Out of all of them Romney and Paul have the business sense to take some hard steps to cut the duration of the necessary pain by increasing its severity, but even then there is little to do to stop what is brewing.

Most likely the it’s Democrat’s turn to sit in the big chair for the next 4 years as folks decide to finish cleaning house that was started in 2006. For the Republicans that is a good thing, they get a chance to remember what gets them elected and why they exist. For the Democrats they are handed an economic downturn that nothing can stop and they get to eat the blame for.

Everyone – remember to vote tomorrow if your state is having a primary. I may think the choices stink, but participation is essential. I will be voting tomorrow early!

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Category: 2008 Election, Main

About the Author ()

Bruce Henderson is a former Marine who focuses custom data mining and visualization technologies on the economy and other disasters.

Comments (3)

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  1. Jeffrey Carr says:

    Bruce, I have to disagree with your prediction regarding Hillary becoming the Dem nominee, and here’s why. We’re seeing record turnouts in every state so far, mostly by the under 30 demographic. And the one thing that they, and many other people, want for this election is a CHANGE from business-as-usual. As much as I like Hillary and Bill Clinton, they don’t represent change to the degree that’s needed, and particularly not to the under 30s’. That’s why my prediction is for Obama to become our next President, and by a huge margin. In a way, his lack of executive experience and his youth are working for him, rather than against him, thanks to the compelling cause for Change.

  2. Bruce Henderson says:

    Jeffrey – I hear you, and I admire the passion that Obama supporters have, and I agree that a Hillary presidency is not something that most of America is very enthusiastic about. I just worry that the Clinton “machine” has so much mud to throw that it’s going to overwhelm Senator Obama’s charisma. I am fully prepared to be wrong about the Democratic side, but I worry I am not.

  3. loscielos says:

    “I honestly think any of these people could probably survive one term as president without destroying everything we know about America.”

    After the primaries, I plan to start paying as much attention as I can to the other branches of government and encourage them to exert checks and balances. Sure, it’s a three ring circus and right now the freak show is on center stage, but the President still doesn’t have all power. The system is built to self-correct in the face of corruption. Regardless of who is chosen, I think the next four years will be our generation’s opportunity to prove the American experiment.