In 2008 – It’s Tough To Be A Republican

| May 9, 2008

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For the past several months all eyes have been focused on the ongoing mess that is the remains of the Democratic primary. The untold and emerging story is the impending beating that the Republicans are likely to take in November. In interest of full disclosure I consider myself a conservative and tend to vote Republican more than Democrat.

The reasons for this upcoming Republican rout are several, but first a few words of wisdom from the Politico – GOP leaders warn of election disaster:

Shellshocked House Republicans got warnings from leaders past and present Tuesday: Your party’s message isn’t good enough to prevent disaster in November, and neither is the NRCC’s money. And in a closed-door session at the Capitol, National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole (R-Okla.) told members that the NRCC doesn’t have enough cash to “save them” in November if they don’t raise enough money or run strong campaigns themselves.

A good measure of this is the fact that Newt Gingrich loves to tell people that “If you don’t listen to me you are doomed!”. I think Gingrich did some great work when he was speaker of the house, at least at the beginning. But now he is just another media shill, who is eager to generate interest in his books and selling them.

Also from the Politico – GOP loss could threaten leadership:

The dark clouds hovering over House Republicans hold one silver lining for Minority Leader John A. Boehner, GOP Whip Roy Blunt and National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Cole: Expectations for November are now set so low that a loss of fewer than 10 seats could be seen as a sort of victory.

But if Republican losses break into the double digits, the three leaders could find it hard to hold on to their jobs, and rank and file members could throw their support behind a new generation of members — reformers who say their party should be making dramatic changes to prove to voters that it has learned the lessons that cost it the majority in 2006.

These newer members lack the votes now to overcome the wishes of more entrenched members of the Republican caucus. But a GOP bloodbath in November could change everything.

So let me help out the good folks at the Politico who seems to ricochet around near the heart of the matter but can’t seem to hit the target. Right now the Republicans are headed for a lot of races that are going to go to the Democrats. Lets looks at the reasons:

Republicans have enraged the conservative base – Plain and simple, over time the officials of the Republican party became self-indulgant and self-abosrbed. They wallowed in the privilege of power and became the party of big government, massive spending and questionable ethics. While it seems that modern Democrats giggle and wink at such behavior, the conservative core of the Republican party is unwilling to abandon standards so easily.

The voters (in general) are not done punishing the Republicans – The American people took congress away from the Republicans in 2006. In part this was because the conservatives declared that “enough is enough” and in part it was a broader message that President Bush was not popular. Truth be told that very few districts and states can elect a Republican member of congress without support from conservatives. Given who is leading the 2008 ticket, it is tough for any Republican congressional candidate to make the case that there is any interest in conservative goals and principles. Conservatives are still working through the betrayal of such duds as Dubai Ports, FEMA director Mike Brown and hurricane Katrina, Harriet Miers and quite a few others. The Republicans have yet to get a clue and understand why they are being punished, so the beatings shall continue.

The Republican presidential candidate is not running as a Republican – No one thinks McCain is a conservative, nor should they. The core of the conservative movement (with apologies to Michael Savage) are summed up as: Borders, Language and Culture. McCain falls short on all counts. Distain for this career politician with no appreciation of conservative goals is going to lead to the core of the Republican party staying home or voting against the “R” ticket in November.

All told, we are likely to see a less conservative congress in the fall. There is a real potential to have a liberal President with both houses of congress Democrat.

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Category: 2008 Election, Commentary, Main

About the Author ()

Bruce Henderson is a former Marine who focuses custom data mining and visualization technologies on the economy and other disasters.

Comments (1)

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  1. Larry says:

    I didn’t see mention of what to me might be the biggest single error. (I can deal with McClain as likely to cause less damage than the others.)

    I’m not sure I can get past Carly after the HP debacle. (I did not work for HP, but I was responsible for buying HP gear, and I believe that was an ingredient in my being fired.