North Korea Sets Date For Taepodong-2 Launch

Bruce Henderson | March 12, 2009

Word from the Arms Control Wonk that the Norks have set a date range between April 4th and April 8th for their Taepodong-2 test launch.

“Lending a degree of credibility to Pyongyang’s pledge to stage a rocket launch, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said it had been contacted by the North about its plans.

“We have received a letter and it contains dates, times and coordinates,” Lee Adamson, a spokesman with the IMO said by telephone from London, confirming the dates as April 4-8.

Given the track record of the Taepodong project, this will likely be another fail, with the malfunctioning rocket falling somewhere east of Japan after flying over that country in a somewhat out of control manner, causing a great deal of alarm for the Japanese public. With any luck there will not be a huge push within Japan to take a more solid posture against North Korea. The last thing the world needs is for Japan to re-embrace the Bushido way.

I would also put the odds of an attempted shoot down by the US Navy at very very small. This will be a presidential level decision, and I don’t think Obama would like to up the ante with China and Korea at this point.