Word from the Arms Control Wonk that the Norks have set a date range between April 4th and April 8th for their Taepodong-2 test launch.
“Lending a degree of credibility to Pyongyang’s pledge to stage a rocket launch, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) said it had been contacted by the North about its plans.
“We have received a letter and it contains dates, times and coordinates,” Lee Adamson, a spokesman with the IMO said by telephone from London, confirming the dates as April 4-8.
Given the track record of the Taepodong project, this will likely be another fail, with the malfunctioning rocket falling somewhere east of Japan after flying over that country in a somewhat out of control manner, causing a great deal of alarm for the Japanese public. With any luck there will not be a huge push within Japan to take a more solid posture against North Korea. The last thing the world needs is for Japan to re-embrace the Bushido way.
I would also put the odds of an attempted shoot down by the US Navy at very very small. This will be a presidential level decision, and I don’t think Obama would like to up the ante with China and Korea at this point.
Bonus points awarded to the Foal Eagle exercise if JDS Kongo (Japanese Navy Aegis Cruiser, pictured above) takes the shot and scores a kill.
