Category: Recession Watch

Here comes the bubble, redux

Here comes the bubble, redux

| December 4, 2007 | Reply

Some months back I raised a cautionary flag over what I considered to be the excessively high valuation of VMWare (“Uh oh…Tech Crash 2.0?”). I got caught in the original (though largely unacknowledged) tech crash in the 1988-1991 time frame and so was able to see (and avoid) what is largely (if incorrectly) termed the […]

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E-Trade Rescue Package – 30 Cents On The Dollar?

E-Trade Rescue Package – 30 Cents On The Dollar?

| November 29, 2007 | Reply

Word today from MarketWatch that the CEO of E-Trade is hitting the bricks as part of a $2.55 Billion deal with Citadel to pump enough money into the online broker to keep it running in face of losses connected to their Asset Backed Securities (ABS): NEW YORK (MarketWatch) — The subprime crisis claimed a new […]

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Recession Triggers Firing – When Money Disapears

Recession Triggers Firing – When Money Disapears

| November 26, 2007 | Reply

Recessions are interesting things, the most interesting part of which is just how the world financial powers have been able to avoid any significant ones for quite some time. The minor one just after September 11th, 2001 was avoided by the central banks opening up the flood gates and swamping the economies with easy money. […]

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Oil: irrational exuberance [updated 11/27/07]

Oil: irrational exuberance [updated 11/27/07]

| November 26, 2007 | Reply

[UPDATED 11/27/07: Here’s an article from the CNN/Money web site that is raising the same issue: given current supply and inventory levels, there’s not much justification for oil approaching $100/bbl.] No, I’m not talking about whether or not the Peak Oil phenomenon exists, even though the Wall Street Journal seems to have jumped on the […]

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More Notes On The Super Conduit

More Notes On The Super Conduit

| November 13, 2007 | Reply

I wrote a month ago about the formation of a strange new entity called the M-LEC or “Super Conduit”. At that time the main forces behind this were Citibank, JP Morgan / Chas and Bank of America. Once again obscure, seldom mentioned work behind the scenes is having a profound effect upon all of us, […]

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Warning Shot – Japan Warns On Rapid Yen Rise

Warning Shot – Japan Warns On Rapid Yen Rise

| November 12, 2007 | Reply

Once again we are looking at a strange tidbit of information from a far away corner of the world, and how it can have a substantial impact on the US and world economy. From the Financial Times of London: Fukuda warns on rapid rise in yen The yen is appreciating “too fast” and speculators need […]

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E-Trade On The Ropes

E-Trade On The Ropes

| November 12, 2007 | Reply

Word today that investment company E-Trade is feeling the effects of toxic mortgage and credit portfolio. E-Trade has almost $500 Million exposure to mortgages and other credit investments, known as CDOs. From Market Watch: Shares of E-Trade Financial Corp. lost more than half their value Monday after the company said it faced more subprime-related write-downs […]

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Payday Loans – Lender of Last Resort

Payday Loans – Lender of Last Resort

| October 8, 2007 | Reply

The Federal Reserve on Friday reported that consumer credit rose at an annual rate of 5.9% in August, the biggest increase in three months. The increase in consumer credit was led by an 8.1% increase in revolving credit, which is the category that includes credit cards. Non-revolving credit, which includes auto loans, also rose at […]

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Inflation – American Consumers Fighting Back

Inflation – American Consumers Fighting Back

| October 5, 2007 | Reply

If you believe some of the negative financial press the American masses are a fickle mob of spendthrifts that mindlessly blow everything they have and then some without a care. In contrast to that, I offer a story from the Wall Street Journal: Food Makers Struggle To Pass On High Costs High commodity prices have […]

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Does this strike anyone else as a really bad idea?

Does this strike anyone else as a really bad idea?

| September 22, 2007 | 1 Reply

I’m in the middle of making a large batch of spaghetti sauce last week, and a commercial comes on for something called “Equity Repositioning.” The basic idea is to borrow against your house and invest the money in something else. Of course, that “something else” has to provide enough regular income to make the payment […]

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